Publishing and books - the next ten years

From ireaderreview.com comes the following horizon scanning.

What will be the 10 biggest changes in 2010 through 2020?

In no particular order:

• 50-50 split between paper and electronic books.


• eReaders grow to over 100 million units in circulation.


• 2 to 3 Platform Companies dominate – Apple and Amazon are the likeliest.


• 2 to 3 of the Big Publishers survive and have the next most power (after platforms).


• 25% more People read than now. People read 40% more with eReaders than they did without eReaders.


• eBooks are priced between $4 and $10 with readers accepting these prices.


• Closed, walled gardens dominate and sustain eBooks (and Books).


• 1 to 2 companies dominate eBook sales – Amazon, Apple, and probably Google.


• Top 1% of authors make over a million (or close) every year and next 9% of authors earn a very good living.


• The core definition of books doesn’t change – color books, interactive books, video books and various other contraptions don’t kill or hurt books as we know them now.

Given that this scanning comes from ireaderreview.com, some caution must be taken (and this is reiterated in the report) in assessing these predictions. Information at: http://ireaderreview.com/2010/02/03/publishing-and-books-in-10-years/

Price for SMEs for carbon accounting not sky high.

An interesting piece of work by National Centre for Sustainability, Swinburne University of Technology which claims that the price for SMEs for carbon accounting is not sky high.

See: http://www.swin.edu.au/ncs/documents/SP1323_NCS_ClimateChangefinal.pdf

What is very interesting in a library context is what is not accounted for?

So, what’s not counted? Emissions embodied into materials, goods and services. For libraries the embedded content in books, CDs, DVDs, etc is an issue to be further considered. Although, in their own way libraries, to the extent that materials are "recycled", help to reduce the overall impact on the environment.

The report suggest a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) should be undertaken to determine this properly. An LCA is the evaluation of the inputs, outputs and environmental impacts of a product system over its lifecycle. This would be potentially a long and costly exercise for most libraries.

Perhaps there is an opportunity to develop a model based on weight/cost/other factors that could be more easily and readily used by libraries to determine the embedded carbon in their materials. More on this later.

Young Australians Reading

SLV's Centre for Youth Literature has just released Young Australians Reading an updated report. It's at : http://tinyurl.com/yey8el6

Interesting perspective from the report:

　


"Mylee Joseph monitors trends and developments in new media. She says, ‘There is a definite shift in thinking about books as content rather than format. This will be increasingly important with e-books (born digital) and digitisation of hard-copy books for online consumption.

‘One of the trends is the personalisation of everything – your own preferred style. California State Library, looking at identifying technology trends, call it It’s All About Me – mass, personalised consumption, products and brands customised to suit the individual. For libraries, it means instead of relying on one type of resource or program, you need to provide more flexibility so young people can mash it up for themselves.

It’s the remix culture. For example, you might have someone who takes pictures and adds a soundtrack, or illustrates and orchestrates a poem or prose.’ "

Comfortable Lifestyle and Modest Lifestyle in Retirement

I thought you might find this information from the Westpac-ASFA Retirement Standard interesting: http://www.superannuation.asn.au/RS/default.aspx

To achieve “Comfortable” status as a couple you probably need $500 to $600k in Super, which still allows you to receive some Age Pension.

The Standard provides “Detailed Budget Breakdowns: Comfortable Lifestyle and Modest Lifestyle” as at September 2009.

It only allows $11.75 per week for books and magazines for a Comfortable Couple - thank heavens for libraries!